市場匯評

Markets enter the final Q1 week under heavy pressure as the Iran-Israel-US conflict hits its fifth week. The S&P 500 nears correction territory amid energy-driven inflation risks. With oil over $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.4%, expectations have shifted from rate cuts to a possible hike later this year. Key focus: Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls, Tuesday’s Eurozone CPI, and global manufacturing PMIs

U.S.Israeli military aggression against Iran entered its third week. FOMC meeting (March 17–18) with its updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) will be the most closely watched event: the first meeting where the Fed must formally incorporate the Iran war's effects on inflation and growth into its forward guidance. Markets currently assign a 92%+ probability of a rate hold at 3.50% - 3.75%, per CME FedWatch, but the press conference on March 18 will set the tone for the rest of the year.

Trump's 15% blanket global tariff remains in place, keeping supply chain volatility elevated. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair expires May 23, 2026 with Kevin Warsh considered to succeed him.

• FOMC Meeting (March 17–18): Rate decision plus dot plot, first post-Iran war projections
• Bank of England & ECB policy meetings, Super Week for central banks
• U.S. energy data (EIA crude inventories) - closely watched amid Strait of Hormuz closure
• Any signs of ceasefire or Strait reopening will move all markets

Markets are waiting for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which will dictate the Federal Reserve's next move. Additionally, markets are digesting recent U.S. trade policy disruptions, specifically a 15% blanket global tariff that has kept volatility elevated. In Asia, all eyes are on China’s "Two Sessions" meetings starting Wednesday, where new economic targets and the 15th Five-Year Plan will be released.

Markets are reacting after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against the current emergency tariffs. Soon after, the White House proposed a new flat 10% global tariff.
Investors expect a very large move (about 8% up or down) before Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday.
Talks between the U.S. and Iran on nuclear issues are also important. If the talks succeed, oil could fall by $5 - $10; if they fail, prices will stay higher because markets will keep adding a safety buffer for geopolitical risk.

上週末，特朗普總統暗示可能與伊朗達成可行協議。這緩解了此前推高市場價格的戰爭擔憂。在美國，凱文·沃什被提名執掌美聯儲的消息，令投資者預期利率可能在更長時間內保持高位。本週經濟數據同樣關鍵，尤其是週五的美國就業報告，可能對市場產生顯著影響。

本週最大的新聞來自美國首都。經過一週關於對歐洲加徵關稅和格陵蘭交易的威脅後，特朗普總統似乎軟化了立場（這又是老一套——先用可怕的事情威脅，然後改變主意，提出不那麼惡毒的建議，結果不知怎的大家就都接受了）。然而，焦點迅速轉向加拿大，因其可能與中國達成的貿易協議而出現了新的100%關稅威脅（這是一種“千刀萬剐”式的緩慢侵蝕——往往通過逐步升級、不易察覺的變化來破壞民主價值觀和制度，直到造成重大損害）。

在美國方面，PCE年率錄得2.8%，仍高於政府2%的目標。因此，市場現在預期美聯儲將等到6月或9月才會開始降息。

最近幾天發生了很多事情：美國軍隊抓獲了委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅。格陵蘭問題也再次浮現，同樣還有對美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的刑事調查。 

關於經濟數據，大家都在為即將公布的美國通脹報告做準備，這份報告很可能將決定美聯儲本月晚些時候是否會繼續降息。

在聖誕行情的推動下，市場正以積極態勢結束2025年。公司股價的主要增長基於人工智能技術的應用和投資者信心的改善。
美國加強了對委內瑞拉油輪的海上封鎖，引發對石油供應的新擔憂。日本央行將利率上調至30年來的最高水平，但日元依舊疲軟。若匯率波動過於劇烈，日本當局可能進行干預。

本週最重要的新聞圍繞市場對美聯儲下週降息的預期展開。美聯儲很可能將連續第三次降息。另一則次要但同樣重要的消息是人工智能相關投資的持續繁榮，這幫助科技板塊在全球範圍內表現出強勁的上漲。然而，這種增長背後隱藏著對頑固通膨和美國創紀錄財政赤字可持續性的擔憂。

以美聯儲為首的全球主要央行正發出信號，表明高利率將持續更長時間。這將推高政府及企業的借貸成本，導致全球經濟增長放緩，並從根本上降低許多公司的長期估值。
與此同時，股市表現日益由少數與AI投資熱潮相關的科技巨頭主導。儘管AI有望帶來巨大的生產力提升，但其高度集中性也構成了顯著的長期風險：若這些股票無法滿足極高的盈利預期，整個市場將面臨劇烈回調。