市場情緒

在過去的7天裡，石油，有色金屬和其他礦物原料的價格雖然有所下降，但仍保持在較高水準。因此，商品貨幣有所加強：加元，澳大利亞和紐西蘭元，墨西哥比索和南非蘭特。在公佈負面經濟資料之後，日元走弱：貿易平衡，工業生產及該行業一系列商業活動資料。此外，日元受到日本銀行行長黑田東彥講話的負面影響，即日本的通貨膨脹不太可能在2024年達到+ 2％的目標水準。在2021年1月，按年計算是-0.6％。投資者認為，日本央行將繼續其軟貨幣政策。

Оil quotes continued to rise over the past 7 days. Against this background, the currencies of oil-producing countries, such as the Russian ruble and the Canadian dollar, strengthened. The New Zealand dollar weakened after the announcement of negative economic indicators: ANZ Business Confidence and Electronic Retail Card Spending.

在過去的7天裡，石油價格持續上漲。 包括黃金在內的貴金屬價格下跌。 在這種背景下，石油公司的股票有所增加，俄羅斯盧布走強，澳大利亞和紐西蘭元以及南非蘭特走軟。 在美國政府債券收益率持續增長的推動下，美元走強。

在過去的7天裡，各種商品和原材料的價格持續上漲。 這有助於加強商品國家（澳大利亞和紐西蘭）的貨幣。 自2021年初以來，美國10年期債券的收益率一直在積極增長。 在此期間，它從每年0.9％增長到1.49％，並在一周內從1.34％增加到1.45％。 這可能會導致瑞郎貶值。 十年期瑞士政府債券的收益率是負數，是世界上最低的之一，為-0.23％

Quotes of gold mining companies fell along with the price of gold. Investors reacted to a decrease in global risks amid massive coronavirus vaccinations. The end of the pandemic may increase the demand for oil. Thanks to this, the shares of the oil companies advanced the most. The Japanese yen fell on the back of rising yields on US and European bonds.

US dollar short bets inched down to $29.54 billion from $29.95 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 9 and released on February 12. The dollar sentiment improvement continued despite Bureau of Labor Statistics report US economy added only 49,000 jobs in January after losing 227 thousand in December, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.3% from 6.7% the previous month.. The drop in dollar bearish bets was recorded despite Fed chair Powell’s highlighting of headwinds to the economic recovery - saying ‘we have not won this yet’, signaling that monetary policy will remain ultra-easy as Fed kept interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. However, US Labor Department reported 847 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 914 thousand the previous week.

The US dollar weakened noticeably over the past 7 days. Investors fear a rise in inflation in the USA amid large-scale measures to stimulate the American economy. Against the backdrop of continued growth in global prices for oil, copper and non-ferrous metals, the commodity-based currencies such as the Russian ruble, the South African rand, the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone have strengthened. The Turkish lira was supported by the increase in the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey at the end of 2020 to 17%. At the same time, the Central Bank of Turkey intends to keep high rates until 2023 and expects inflation to drop to 10% by the end of 2021.

US dollar bearish bets fell sharply to $29.95 billion from $34.40 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to February 2 and released on February 5. The dollar sentiment improved considerably with sharp drop in bullish bets on euro while bullish bets on Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and British Pound were much smaller as Germany’s retail sales plunged 9.6% over month in December after 1.1% increase a month earlier. The drop in dollar bearish bets was recorded despite Fed chair Powell’s highlighting of headwinds to the economic recovery - saying ‘we have not won this yet’, signaling that monetary policy will remain ultra-easy as Fed kept interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. However, US Labor Department reported 847 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 914 thousand the previous week.

The US dollar has strengthened significantly over the past 7 days. Investors expect new US President Joe Biden's tax initiatives to cut government deficits. Euro fell in price amid weak EU macroeconomic data. Core Inflation Rate YoY in January rose to 1.4%. GDP Growth Rate YoY fell 5.1%. The Turkish lira strengthened due to the rise in the rate of the Central Bank of Turkey at the end of 2020 to 17%. At the same time, the Central Bank of Turkey intends to maintain high rates until 2023 and expects inflation to fall to 10% by the end of 2021.

US dollar short bets increase paused with net short bets inching down to $34.40 billion from $34.48 billion against the major currencies during the one week period, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 26 and released on January 29. The dollar sentiment was essentially unchanged with increase in bullish bets on euro and Canadian dollar overshadowed by decreases in Pound and Australian dollar bullish bets as the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged but said it stands ready to act. The increase in dollar bearish bets paused following Joe Biden’s inauguration and Markit report US Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1 month for January from 57.1 the previous month, with services sector also accelerating its expansion. Readings above 50.0 indicate industry expansion, below indicate contraction. However, US Labor Department reported 900 thousand Americans sought unemployment benefits over the last week, down from 926 thousand the previous week.